RDU Webinar Series: Delay Adjustment for Cancer Incidence Estimation

Recorded On: 07/20/2016

Part 1: Reporting Delay Adjustment Across NAACCR Registries

Presented by: Huann-Sheng Chen, Ph.D.; Mathematical Statistician, NCI

Timely and accurate calculation of cancer incidence rates is hampered by reporting delay, the time elapsed before a diagnosed cancer case is reported to the cancer registries. While cases in SEER are first reported about two years after the end of a diagnosis year (e.g. 2013 cases were reported in the November 2015 submission), in subsequent submissions the data are updated as either new cases are found or new information is received about previously submitted cases. The idea behind modeling reporting delay is to adjust the current case count to account for anticipated future corrections (both additions and deletions) to the data. These adjusted counts are valuable in more precisely determining current cancer trends.

Previously, delay adjustment was only available for the SEER 9 and SEER 13 registry groups, a coordinated effort by NCI, CDC and NAACCR has led to a unified approach to estimate and report delay adjusted rates across all of US and Canada. The April 2016 data release (based on the 2015 November submission with data through diagnosis year 2013) is the second year that delay factors for SEER have been based on NAACCR submission data, and a different and improved statistical model has been used with the goal of producing more stable estimates. In the first part of this talk we will describe the new methodology, how the modeling was conducted, and the results from the analysis of 2015 NAACCR data.

Part 2: Using Delay Adjustment Models for Preliminary Estimates for Cancer Incidence for 2013

Presented by: Denise R. Lewis, Ph.D.; Epidemiologist, NCI

Beginning in 2011, SEER registries were required to submit data not only in November, but also in February of each year. In the second part of this talk, we present analysis of delay adjusted rates and trends for cases diagnosed through 2013 using the February 2015 submission. While February submissions require larger delay adjustment factors than November submissions, it provides a preliminary estimate of the data for the same diagnosis years as the November submission.

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Delay Adjustment for Cancer Incidence Estimation